Dangote Plans $45bn African Expansion as Lagos Refinery Targets Higher Capacity

Aliko Dangote’s industrial expansion is built on a simple idea: Africa should process more of its raw materials locally instead of importing finished products. Dangote Group is extending that approach through major investments in cement, fertiliser, refining and energy infrastructure across the continent. The group plans to invest $45 billion across Africa between 2026 and 2030, with $22.6 billion already committed. Its Vision 2030 strategy targets $100 billion in annual revenue. Key projects include expanded cement operations, a fertiliser plant in Ethiopia expected to supply local and regional markets, and the Lagos refinery, which began operations in 2024. The Lagos refinery, built at a cost exceeding $20 billion, has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. Dangote Group plans to raise this to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028. It is also considering a 700,000-barrels-per-day refinery in Lamu, Kenya, to supply fuel to several East and Central African markets. The expansion could strengthen local manufacturing, reduce fuel imports and support trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area. However, the strategy also faces risks, including financing pressure, naira volatility, crude supply concerns and oil theft in the Niger Delta.

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