Dangote Refinery Sparks Nigeria’s Credit Upgrade and Trade Surplus Surge

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has become a key driver of Nigeria’s improving economic outlook after S&P Global Ratings lifted the sovereign rating from B- to B. The agency cited stronger economic growth, improved external balances, rising oil output and expanded refining capacity. It highlighted the refinery’s 650,000 barrels-per-day output as crucial in boosting the balance of payments and cutting petrol imports. S&P forecasts Nigeria’s current account surplus will climb to 5.8% of GDP in 2026, up from 4.8% in 2025, thanks to higher refining and exports. The plant also secures domestic fuel, gas and fertiliser supplies and buffers against global supply shocks. Exchange rate liberalisation, fuel subsidy removal and higher oil production have bolstered foreign reserves from about $33 billion in 2023 to nearly $50 billion by early 2026, aided by lower fuel import demand.

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