Osun 2026: Five Voting Blocs That Could Decide the August 15 Election

The 2022 Osun governorship election was decided by a narrow margin of 28,344 votes, with Ademola Adeleke polling 403,371 votes to Gboyega Oyetola’s 375,027. The 2026 contest could again come down to a few key blocs and whether parties can change their margins. In Ijesaland, Adeleke’s six-LGA advantage was about 6,800 votes, making the area a major target for the APC after several political figures joined the party. APC also led by roughly 8,600 votes across the four Ife LGAs in 2022 and will seek to expand that advantage. Osogbo, Olorunda, Irepodun and Orolu gave Adeleke a combined lead of about 12,700 votes. In the West, Adeleke’s Ede advantage of roughly 28,000 votes nearly matched his statewide winning margin, while surrounding LGAs remained competitive. The ADC and Najeem Salaam could also influence the final outcome by drawing votes from either major party. APC’s route is to reduce Adeleke’s margins in his strongholds, while Adeleke must ensure that recent defections do not translate into lost votes on election day.

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