When Past Success Isn’t Proof of Safety

We often assume that if something worked before, it must be safe. But relying on past outcomes can be dangerous. This mindset, known as normalisation of deviance, confuses luck with safety. Survivorship bias, outcome bias and overconfidence all make us ignore real risks. A car trip without a crash or a candle left burning without incident doesn’t guarantee safety next time. To stay safe, judge risks by their nature, not by past results. Treat near-misses as warnings and follow safety rules even when nothing has gone wrong. Regularly question familiar routines and ask: “Is this really safe, or have I just been lucky?”

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