MTN Nigeria at ₦830: 20% Upside, 3.6% Dividend—Is It Still a Buy?

MTN Nigeria trades at ₦830, with a base case fair value of ₦999.89—around 20% upside—and a 3.6% dividend yield as you wait. Bull-case target is ₦1,119.88 and bear case ₦747, weighted 30% and 20%. Momentum remains healthy (RSI 62) and volume is 1.76× average. Revenue grew 54.9% year-on-year, though net profit was hit by FX translation effects and one-off charges that should normalize over time. The balance sheet improved, with a 10.5% debt reduction and a net cash position. Watch regulatory risk from the Nigerian Communications Commission’s pricing review and ongoing FX volatility. Investors should adjust positions based on risk appetite—holding for income, starting a moderate stake now, or aggressive accumulation on weakness. This analysis is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

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