Leveraging Middle East Tensions: Lessons for Nigeria’s Oil Windfall

During the 1990–1991 Gulf War, Nigeria earned about $12.4 billion in extra oil revenue. A government panel later found most of this windfall spent off-budget and largely unaccounted for. Today’s surge in crude prices, triggered by Middle East tensions, offers a similar opportunity. With global oil trading at $92–100 per barrel against Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.9, the country stands to gain a major fiscal boost. Experts urge saving surplus funds in the sovereign wealth fund and channeling revenues into refinery rehabilitation, gas projects, and expanding production toward 4 million barrels per day. This approach can strengthen energy security and create long-term value. They warn that unchecked fuel cost increases are already driving up living expenses. To turn a temporary windfall into sustained growth, the government should stabilise forex, invest strategically, and avoid past mismanagement.

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