Nigeria’s $23.2B Inflow: 85% Hot Money, Just 4% Real Investment
Nigeria recorded a $23.2 billion capital inflow in 2025. Yet 85% of that sum is foreign portfolio investment in Treasury bills and bonds. Only 4%—about $923 million—is true foreign direct investment in factories, farms and logistics. Portfolio flows can exit in 24 hours when global rates shift. FDI creates jobs, expands supply and stabilizes the economy over time. Right now we’re applauding liquidity while capacity stalls. Egypt and Brazil show the way. After floating its currency, Egypt bundled fast-track permits into a “Golden License” and secured $11.5 billion in FDI in 2024. Brazil offered 10-year policy certainty in renewables and logistics, attracting $64.6 billion. Nigeria can adopt a similar path. Any FDI above $50 million would get all approvals via a single portal in 20 days, plus a five-year repatriation guarantee. Three mega projects—agro-logistics corridors, coastal cement hubs and a WHO-GMP pharma park—would tap private funds and drive lasting growth.
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