Could Greater State Autonomy After 2027 Lead to Nigeria’s Breakup?

I have been thinking about Nigeria’s political future after the 2027 presidential election. My view is that, if President Tinubu wins re-election, his administration may push further constitutional restructuring and give states greater control over electricity, policing, resources and other areas now dominated by the Federal Government. I believe this could eventually make the Federal Government weaker and the states more autonomous. While I welcome reforms that strengthen states, I am also concerned about ethnic division, political exclusion and the hardship faced by ordinary Nigerians. These are personal political projections, not confirmed government plans. If Nigeria were ever to break up into Biafra, Oduduwa, Niger Delta, Middle Belt and Arewa blocs, I think each region would face different economic and social challenges. Oduduwa could benefit from Lagos’ commercial strength, while the Niger Delta could rely on oil wealth. Biafra could draw on its diaspora networks, enterprise and long-standing self-determination movement. However, I believe every proposed nation would still need to confront internal ethnic competition, religious tensions, insecurity, resource management and inclusive leadership. What do you think would be the likely outcome of greater regional autonomy or a possible breakup of Nigeria?

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