Anambra and Osun Results Should Not Be Treated Differently in 2027 Debate

The contrasting reactions to the Anambra and Osun governorship elections raise questions about how Nigerians interpret off-season polls ahead of 2027. In Anambra, APGA's Charles Soludo won all 21 LGAs with 422,664 votes. APC received 99,445 votes, while Labour Party polled 10,576. Many Labour Party supporters argued that the result could not measure Peter Obi's presidential support because he was not on the ballot. After Ademola Adeleke's victory in Osun, some commentators have treated the outcome as evidence that President Bola Tinubu will lose in 2027. Yet governorship and presidential elections involve different candidates, local structures, turnout levels and political alliances. APC's 444,815 votes in Osun were also 100,870 higher than Tinubu's 2023 total in the state, but that figure alone cannot predict the next presidential election either. Adeleke deserves congratulations and APC should assess its loss. However, applying one standard to Anambra and another to Osun is not a reliable way to analyse the 2027 race. Tinubu, like Obi in Anambra, was not on the ballot.

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