How a Split Opposition Could Undermine Tinubu’s 2027 Chances

I challenge the APC claim that a divided opposition guarantees Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027. Using INEC’s 2023 vote data, I show how fragmentation might actually hurt Tinubu more than his rivals. In 2023, Tinubu won strong support in the South West, North West, North Central and North East. Atiku led in the North East and North West, while Peter Obi dominated the South East, South South and North Central. Looking ahead, Buhari’s absence may shift his bloc to Atiku in the North, but hurt Tinubu’s Northern edge after key endorsements and appointments sidelined his former allies. Meanwhile, Obi stands to gain in the North West with Kwankwaso as running mate and El-Rufai’s backing, while his Southeast and youth support remains intact. In summary, current data suggest a divided opposition poses a greater risk to Tinubu than to Obi. Only a new contender like Goodluck Jonathan could upset this balance by splitting Obi’s core voters.

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