OPEC+ May Raise Oil Output in September, Then Pause Increases Until 2027

OPEC+ is expected to approve a further oil-production increase of 188,000 barrels per day at its August 2 meeting, before pausing monthly output hikes from October. The increase would complete the return of 1.65 million barrels per day previously held back under voluntary cuts. However, another 2 million barrels per day of cuts is expected to remain in place until the end of 2026. The oil-producing alliance is also reviewing members' production capacities ahead of new quotas in 2027. Iraq is seeking a higher quota after investing in capacity, while conflict, export disruptions and attacks on infrastructure have complicated output across several member countries. Although output targets have risen, actual OPEC+ production has fallen in recent months because some members face infrastructure and export constraints. The outcome could influence global supply and oil prices, with possible implications for Nigeria's oil revenue and fuel market.

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